As Donald Trump prepares for his state visit to the UK, tensions are rising over key issues where the US and UK are not aligned. The visit promises to be an unpredictable one, especially with Trump’s history of contradictions and off-the-cuff remarks that often create diplomatic headaches. For UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, the visit presents both opportunities and challenges, particularly on foreign policy issues related to Russia, Ukraine, and the future of Israel’s relationships in the Middle East.
What Happened
Last week, Donald Trump described UK Labour leader Keir Starmer as a “good man,” distancing himself from other figures in the US far right, like Elon Musk, who have criticized the UK leader. However, the central question surrounding Trump’s state visit is how he will navigate his public remarks once in front of the media. Trump’s unpredictability, as seen in his first state visit to the UK in 2018, leaves much room for speculation. In that visit, Trump’s friendly demeanor was contrasted by controversial interviews, such as one with The Sun where he insulted then-prime minister Theresa May and praised Boris Johnson.
Starmer will need to manage Trump’s potential comments on contentious issues such as free speech in the UK, immigration, and Palestine’s recognition, among others. With the current UK government facing difficult international challenges, the Foreign Office is preparing for anything that might come from Trump’s unpredictability.
Starmer’s Foreign Policy Dilemmas
The most pressing issues Starmer will have to contend with during Trump’s visit are those on which the UK and the US have differing positions, notably on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the Middle East peace process. The UK has strongly supported Ukraine against Russian aggression, while Trump’s views on the war are far from clear, especially in light of his recent rhetoric and proposals for massive sanctions on Russia, India, and China.
Jonathan Powell, the UK’s national security adviser, has hinted at the UK’s strategy to increase pressure on Russia to bring President Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table. Powell emphasized that by closing off Putin’s options and making the war untenable, the UK could force Russia into peace talks. However, Powell stopped short of commenting on Trump’s demands for preconditions to imposing sanctions on Russia, including requiring NATO members like Turkey and India to halt imports of Russian energy.
A Clash of Approaches on Sanctions
Trump’s recent proposal for sanctions has raised eyebrows in both Europe and the US. His idea of imposing 50-100% tariffs on Chinese imports of Russian energy and demanding an end to Russian energy imports from countries like Turkey and India would be disruptive to global trade. For Starmer, the challenge will be to try and steer Trump towards more targeted measures, such as sanctions on Chinese and Indian refineries that process Russian oil. Despite the EU’s efforts to cut its imports of Russian crude by 90%, Hungary and Slovakia continue to import Russian oil via pipelines, a situation that Starmer may use to argue for further action.
In particular, Starmer will attempt to convince Trump that these sanctions are necessary for a more effective approach to the Russian war machine, focusing on enforcement, not just the scale of the sanctions. As Keith Kellogg, Trump’s Ukraine special envoy, put it, while sanctions have been applied, enforcement remains a significant issue.
The Drones and the Ceasefire Debate
Another key point of contention lies in Trump’s comments about Russian drones entering Polish airspace. While Trump suggested the 20 drone incursions were accidental, many, including Polish officials, strongly disagree. Radosław Sikorski, the Polish foreign minister, mocked the idea of such a large number of mistakes happening at once. For Starmer, convincing Trump that these incursions were deliberate will be crucial in making a case for continued pressure on Russia and pushing back against the narrative that the US believes Ukraine may inevitably lose the war.
What Happens Next
As Trump’s state visit looms, Starmer will have to balance his political capital in dealing with these foreign policy issues while managing his relationship with the unpredictable US president. With crucial international decisions at stake, particularly regarding sanctions on Russia and the ongoing war in Ukraine, Starmer will likely try to steer Trump towards more unified transatlantic action. However, Trump’s willingness to engage on these terms, or his preference for a more transactional approach, will shape the success of this diplomatic encounter.
The visit is sure to spark debates on the future direction of the UK’s relationship with the US, as well as the broader global response to Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and the Middle East peace process.
This story may be updated with more information as it becomes available.
